The NHL playoffs are done and as most of Canada could care less about the Jays, it's time to get outside. Before you do let's have a look at this years NHL free agency class. Lists are a tool generally reserved for shitty bloggers who can't articulate ideas in a structured form. With no further adieu here is my list of stuff to look out for in 2010-11 NHL offseason.
1. Free agents - a quick Google gives me this list of free agents courtesy of Sports City. The two biggest names are Marleau and Kovalchuk. You have to think one of them ends up with the Kings. They're this year's Chicago, young and talented with available cap room due to entry level deals. I think the 8 year sixty two million dollar front end loaded deal Hossa signed last year is a good comparison. Less money than they could make else where but a real shot at a cup.
2. My favorite sleeper pick in this year's free agency class is Paul Kariya. He's been a favorite of mine since we cried together following the 94 Olympics (at the same time, not actually in the same room). If his time is done in St. Louis (and I have no idea if it is) I think he would fit in very well with the Penguins in a Satan/Guerin mold of washed up wingers trying to extend they're careers alongside Malkin or The Kid.
3. I have a feeling that who ever signs Lee Stempniak is going to regret it, since getting paid by the Blues for scoring 27 goals in 06-07 he's had 18 good games, they just happened to be his last 18 game this year. (14G, 4A) Anything over 2 mil is too much and he's probably going to get a raise on the 3.5 mil he's currently getting.
4. Players like Luongo, Hossa, Savard are signing ridiculously long term front end loaded deals as a way to get their money and provide their team with financial flexibility. This doesn't impress the NHL but it seems a year later they're not actually going to do anything about it. Essentially a 28 year old player sings a 10 year deal for 10 million for the first 6years and 1 million for the last 4 years. The total value of the contract is 64 million with a cap hit of 6.4 million a year. If the player retires in 4 years, he gets paid 40 million for his time with a cap hit of only 25.6 million and the remainder of his contract comes off the books the day he retires. What's interesting is that if a player is 35 when he signs a long term contract it doesn't come off the books when he retires. That's why the Oilers signing 36 year old Khabibulin to a 4 year contract last year was such a bad idea. That's why you probably shouldn't be elated when your team signs Sergei Gonchar to a 4yr 20 million dollar deal.
5. Every year teams overpay for defencemen who don't put the puck in the net because that's what the market seems to dictate. See: Bouwmeester. This year I think it will be Volchenkov. He blocks shots with his face and truly is a shut down defencemen but if his contract gets over 5 million that's probably too much for a guy who has never scored 20 points.
6. Generally the high end guys signed in free agency need to be super elite player to be worth their weight in the salary cap era, therefore the best bargains in the free agent pool are guys in the middle ground. Guys who play lesser roles on winning teams then price themselves out of town like 2009 Samuelsson. Potential guys in this free agency class include Kyle Wellwood, John Madden, Tomas Holmstrom, Matt Cook, Paul Martin and Willie Mitchell if he's not dead.
All the action starts July 1st, stay tuned.
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