UFC 116

One of my goals with this blog is to raise awareness and acceptance of the joys of gambling. How I plan to do this is through education. This Saturday night is UFC 116, Shane Carwin vs Brock Lesnar.

The money line on the fight is Carwin(+125) Lesnar(-155). This means if you bet $100 on Carwin you win $125 or or it means you have to wager $155 on Lesnar to win $100. In bettor's terms you lay 55 with Lesnor or take 25 with Carwin.

In real life this fight is as close to a pick'em as you get. If someone tells you they KNOW who will win this fight they're an asshole (probably wearing a fight shirt). In Vegas life if you bet 100 on Lesnar you can win about 60 but if you bet 100 on Carwin you can win 125. That's 2:1 odds, why the discrepancy if the fight is so close?

Because, and this is important:

The line isn't a predictor of outcome in the fight but instead an indicator of where the action is falling.

It works like "ask the audience" on Who Wants to be a Millionaire. Reggis Philbin(the line) asks every sports bettor in Vegas, who then pick A. Lesnar or B. Carwin by placing wagers. Two thirds of the audience choose A one third B. In order to even the action on both sides (ensuring the house wins) Carwin is given 2:1 odds on the money line. This can happen sometimes because biases not related to the fight cause casual bettors to make irrational bets.


ie: Lesnar was in the WWE before joining the UFC and is one of the UFC's biggest names. Carwin despite having more proffesional fights and a better record is a relatively lesser known fighter. Casual fans recognize Lesnar's name but don't recognize Carwin's. They assume Lesnar is better and choose A because they've never heard of B.

I don't have a clue who will win this weekend's fight but I do know the smart money is on Carwin.


The more you know.